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Big Bash Betting – Making Money on Promotions

If you are after Big Bash League tips, or cricket betting advice in general follow our twitter. But in this article we will help you do so much more – guarantee profit from betting on the Big Bash league by exploiting betting promotions.

Big Bash League Betting

The Big Bash League, as with many domestic T20 leagues, is a cricket competition growing in popularity that has been a veritable gold mine for bookmakers. However, as far as punters should be concerned, the results from domestic T20 cricket competitions (unlike ODI and Test formats) are actually quite difficult to predict. The reason for this is that many traditional predictive factors are not relevant. These include:

  1. Performance from previous years: Teams change significantly every year, meaning performance from previous years is less relevant.
  2. Seasonal form: Seasons are short, and disrupted by players being called up for the national side, meaning seasonal form is less impactful.
  3. Law of large numbers: The games are so short, and batters are required to be so aggressive that game outcomes are highly dependent on individual moments- be they a wicket or a dropped catch – which occur far more frequently than in other formats.
  4. Disparity in quality across teams: Salary caps mean teams are roughly evenly matched, which in turn leads to a high degree of uncertainty over the winner (fun fact: betting on 50/50 games have the highest variability of return).

With all that in mind you might think that t20, and specifically the Big Bash League is a difficult sport to win money on. That would be correct that if not for one thing – the Big Bash League, and specifically the BBL06, has more betting promotions on offer for it than any other Australian sports league this year.

Big Bash Betting Tips, Advice and Strategies - Bonus Offers

Here is a rundown of current promotions, and how often you can expect them to win based on stats from BBL06 so far (last updated 27/12):

Bet365

Offer: Bet365 will double the winnings from your bet (up to $200) if your team wins, and in doing so hits 8 or more 6s.

Probability of occurring: 66% of winning teams hit 8 6s or more (100% of the time when an underdog wins and 50% of the time a favourite wins)

Expected Per Game Promotion Money Profit:

  • Betting on the favourite: $66
  • Betting on the underdog: $66

Strategy: Bet a sum of money on the underdog that will lead to $200 profit if they win (eg. if odds are $1.72 then bet 200/(2.05-1.00) = $190). Note that as the expected return is the same on either the favourite or underdog, you may as well place the bet that requires the least capital (ie the underdog).

Sportsbet & Luxbet

Sportsbet Joining Offer

Luxbet Joining Offer

Offer: Sportsbet will match your winnings with a bonus bet up to $50, and Luxbet up to $51 if your team wins and scores 180 runs in doing so.

Probability: 66% of winning teams have scored 180+ (100% of the time when an underdog wins and 50% of the time a favourite wins)

Expected Per Game Bonus Money Profit on Each Bookmaker:

  • Betting on the favourite: $33 in bonus bets
  • Betting on the underdog: $33 in bonus bets

Strategy:Bet a sum of money on the underdog that will lead to $50 profit for Sportsbet and $51 profit for Luxbet (eg. if odds are $2.05 then bet 50/(1.71-1.00) = $70 on each). Note that as the expected return is also the same whether you bet on the favourite or underdog, you may as well bet on the underdog as it reduces the liability from betting on the favourite with bet365.

Palmerbet


Description: Palmerbet will refund your stake in bonus bets up to $50 if your team loses but scores 170 or more.

Probability: 33% of a refund if your team loses (66% when an underdog loses and 0% when the favourite loses)

Expected Per Game Bonus Money Profit on Each Bookmaker:

  • Betting on the favourite: $0 in bonus bets
  • Betting on the underdog: $8.3 in bonus bets

Strategy: It’s your choice whether you choose to place this or not, as an $8 return on a $50 bet barely is worth the house edge (although it would have been closer to $20 looking at BBL05. If you do choose to bet then bet a sum of money on the favourite that will lead to $50 profit. This has the added benefit of reducing even more of the liability you have from putting more money on the favourite with bet365.

Summary

The bottom line of all of this is that by betting enough to make a $200 profit on Bet365, $50 on Sportsbet, and $51 on Luxbet then on each game you can expect an average profit (based on BBL06 results) of:

$80 in real money
$40 in bonus money – worth about $33 in real money if you follow our advice on the best way to turn bonus money into real money

That’s over $3000 in real money across the 35 games of the season – so get betting!

Note: When all is said and done, following the advice above you are bound to make a lot of money betting on the Big Bash League – but take our advice and don’t get greedy and bet solely on the Big Bash promotions. Make sure you use betting advice elsewhere on this site to bet on a variety of markets or the bookmakers listed above will be well within their rights to ban you.

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